Announcing the lockdown on March 24, 2020, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi offered the mantra of ‘social distancing’ [put simply, this requires maintaining a minimum distance between two persons] to prevent Covid – 19 pandemic from spreading. Accordingly, all activities involving assembly and movement of persons in group were brought to a grinding halt. Amongst others, these included complete ban on inter-state and intra-state movement of persons.
The announcement came under flak from critics who argued that people should have been given time to prepare themselves; this included letting migrant labor working in urban agglomerations [UAs] such as Delhi, Mumbai etc move to their native place. The government’s decision was perfectly in order. Had it given time and allowed people to move en mass, the pandemic would have spread like wildfire; the country would have lost the battle even before waging it.
The lockdown initially for three weeks [up to April 14, 2020] and thereafter extended for 19 days [till May 3, 2020] has yielded good results. Look at any parameter and one gets a sense that India has so far done reasonably well. The number of days taken for doubling of Covid – 19 cases as on May 3, 2020, was 12 days as against 4 days at the beginning of April, 2020. The afflicted persons expressed as percentage of the number tested is a low of 4% [as against 12% in USA and 7.4% in Germany]. The recovery rate or the number of patients recovered as percentage of the total is 27%. The death rate is also very low when compared to many other countries.
The lockdown has now been extended till May 17, 2020 with focus on calibrated opening up of activities subject to several caveats and further modification by local administrations – based on the situation on ground zero. The intent behind this was to consolidate on the gains made during the first two lockdowns.
Meanwhile, there has been intense lobbying for bringing back stranded migrant labor, [besides students, pilgrims etc]. It was simmering when the first phase had commenced [the scenes at Anand Vihar bus terminus (Delhi) are still fresh in memory]. The pressure continued to build even as the political brass was forced to take some unpleasant decisions; e.g. Uttar Pradesh [UP] government had to bring back thousands of students from Kota [Rajasthan].
While, taking a decision to glide the country in to the third lockdown [a more appropriate phrase is ‘calibrated exit’], the central government didn’t have even an iota of intent to permit en mass movement of labor by buses or trains. In consonance with Modi’s much trumpeted policy of letting the people ‘remain where they were’, it was unyielding to streams of demand for such movement. Taking a U-turn, it decided to allow movement initially by buses; within a couple of days, on request by several states, the order was modified to allow movement by train. That was a Himalayan blunder.
This decision is untenable from whatever angle one looks at be it on health, economic, financial or even administrative. Taking a total of approximately 10 million migrant workers and 1400 persons in one train [considering the dire need to prevent transmission of the virus and maintain ‘social distancing’, this is the maximum number that can be accommodated], Indian Railways will have to run over 7000 trains to transport them all to their respective destinations. Administratively, this is going to be a mammoth task.
[Thank God, the original idea of transporting the workers by buses was not pursued as that would have required deployment of hundreds of thousand buses having to run several hundreds of km (in some cases thousands km) – a nightmare not just for the workers who have travel long distance but also, for the administration in different jurisdictions viz. village, block, district, state].Look at the ministry of home affairs [MHA] guidelines, various stakeholders are required to follow in particular, by the state/jurisdiction from where the worker departs as well as by the receiving state; coordination between the two states; all prerequisites for maintaining social distancing throughout the journey – including control on the behavior of the motley crowd at both the departing and receiving stations and thereafter, at quarantine facilities.
One shudders at the very thought of how this will be done; but all this has to be executed on the ground with military precision if one has to be absolutely sure that virus won’t get transmitted. But, this sounds like fairy tale. It is just not going to happen. Let us be very clear. We are not talking of a few hundred students [UP chief minister brought from Rajasthan]. Here, it is a question of moving hundreds of thousand workers. The proof of pudding is in eating.
Already, we see a number of fiasco even as migrants duly authorized to leave – as per agreement between the concerned states – have become carriers of Corona. For instance, a few thousand pilgrims stranded in Nanded [Maharashtra] and moved all the way to Punjab have led to sudden surge in afflictions in the latter. This number will only increase exponentially as thousands of trains run across the country ferrying millions.
Today, Corona cases are limited mostly to 130 out of a total of 720 districts in the country and therein too concentration is in handful of cities such as Delhi, Mumbai etc. But, implementation of the policy has the potential of transmitting this deadly disease to every nook and corner of the country. In the cities, at least, we have medical facilities to give treatment to the afflicted patients. If, cases come up in villages and remote corners of the country, it will be big disaster of an unimaginable magnitude.
From an economic angle also, the decision is bound to have a negative fall-out. Apart from the cost involved in undertaking transportation on a mammoth scale to be borne by the government [after the initial goof-up when the migrant workers were required to pay for the travel and resultant political slug-fest, it was clarified that the cost will be shared by the centre and state in 85:15 ratio], see how it is going to throttle economic activity.
While, workers go to urban agglomerations [UAs] for earning income, the UAs also need them. Alongside supply push, there is demand pull as well. Both are equally crucial for economic activity – be it construction, running of factories, farming etc – to happen. When, workers are sent back to their native places, how will factories be run? where from the contractor will get labor? how will farmers harvest crop? How will agencies do loading and unloading of food grains?
Ironically, movement of workers away from where they are needed is being undertaken at a time when we are gearing up to withdraw from the lockdown and the government is keen to restart economic activity. The decision will nip in the bud any chances of resuming activity even if from a medical perspective, all necessary facilities exist and protocols in place for resumption. For the workers, it will be double whammy as after reaching their native place, they will have nothing to fall back for livelihood unless the government gives them guaranteed income under MGNREGA [work or no work].
This brings us to a million dollar question. What prompted the states mount pressure on the centre? Why has the centre given in?
This may have to do with stranded workers losing their livelihood during the lockdown period; not getting the required support from their employer [or ex-employer]; or the state where they got stuck not providing adequate care in terms of food and shelter; and finally, the ‘emotional bond’ of a worker with his family which is bound to get a fillip in such surcharged atmosphere. It seems none of them viz. employer/ex-employer or the state lived up to their responsibility. Instead, they have either forced workers to leave on their own or orchestrated plans to arrange for their exit.
If, a wrong has been done, it needs to be undone in the overarching interest of containing the spread of Corona and revival of economic activity. The government should withdraw its decision to organize en mass movement of migrant labor. The compliance with ‘social distancing’ will be much better if workers stay where they are. Their staying back will also keep at bay an explosive situation wherein millions could get afflicted. It will be good for economic revival. As regards, the emotional aspect, this can be addressed through better counseling for which the states should put in their best.
Modi needs to change the gear before it is too late.