Poll surveys conducted by various agencies/new channels are unanimous in giving a clear lead to BJP in ensuing Lok Sabha elections during April/May, 2014. The chances are bolstered by a perception that there is a ‘Modi wave’ all over India.
‘Modi wave’ is a euphemism for majority of people expressing a strong feeling that a government led by Modi can fulfil their aspirations in regard to increasing employment, reducing inflation, combating corruption and ensuring rapid development.
An emboldened BJP is pulling all stops to sustain the momentum till voting is completed in every parliamentary constituency by May 12, 2014. It’s objective is to cross 272 mark on its own to ensure that new government is not hamstrung by compulsions of coalition politics.
In electoral politics, it is normal for any political party to aim for absolute majority. But, this time it is a national imperative. More than a billion people of India are desperately looking for a government that is decisive and delivers.
It is a proven fact that country’s economic woes viz., persistent and run-away inflation, slow GDP growth for 3 years in a row, rising un-employment and high twin deficits are predominantly due to policy paralysis and protracted state of indecision.
The new government can stem the rot and put things back on track only if it has full autonomy to act without any encumbrances. This will be possible only if it gets absolute majority.
Good governance is the hall mark of Modi. He has amply demonstrated this and delivered in Gujarat. He has the capacity to replicate this at the national level as well. A clear majority will certainly give him the strength to deliver.
Modi’s ability to take prompt decisions and get bureaucracy to implement within set deadlines can bring about a metaphorical change in the way government functions. This by itself can lay the foundation for putting India on a high growth trajectory.
To gauge what is possible, consider this. In the last leg of UPA-II, in a matter of around 6 months, a Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI) cleared projects worth Rs 700,000 crores or US$ 120 billion. It did so due to fear of impending elections!
Imagine if government had demonstrated such efficiency standards 5 years ago, these projects would have been kicked off much earlier and many of these completed as well. The decline in investment and resultant economic slump could have been avoided.
India needs Modi DNA to ensure that all organs of government work efficiently at desired speed, in an open and transparent manner following clearly set rules and regulations and minimal scope for discretion. There has to be zero tolerance for corruption.
However, a daunting challenge will be in key areas of policy reforms and implementation. Herein, a clear majority will be far more crucial in ensuring that government acts decisively and efficaciously. Here are some hard nuts to crack.
For decades, a culture of subsidies in many areas viz., food, fertilizers, fuel, irrigation, seed, credit etc has got deeply impregnated in our social fabric. During a decade of UPA rule since 2004-05, these have risen to astronomical levels.
Now, these subsidies are being turned in to a fundamental right as reflected in passage of Food Security Act (FSA) in 2013. What this really implies is that even if for some compelling reason, subsidized supplies cannot be arranged, anyone can drag government to court.
These subsidies are not targeted, inefficiently administered, lack transparency, prone to leakages, scuttle efficient functioning of markets and impose a heavy cost on exchequer. These are one of major causes of fiscal imbalance.
There is dire need for drastic reform in these subsidies to make them targeted, focused and transparent. Government must switch over to direct cash transfer. UPA promised but backtracked. Will Modi have the gumption to take it forward?
Given his track record of delivering power to farmers in Gujarat without subsidy and yet keeping them happy as they are assured of un-interrupted supplies for 8 hours in a day, there is reason to be confident that he can deliver at the national level too.
But, the task is formidable as Modi will have to fight the legacy and the deeply ingrained culture of subsidy. Sudden taking away of subsidies that people including millions of undeserving is bound to invite the wrath of public.
Congress and other die hard opponents of Modi already brand him as an authoritarian (some even compare him with Hitler). They blast him for taking decisions unilaterally and crushing dissent. They hammer the need for forging consensus ad infinitum.
Now, for subsidy reforms which are badly needed for solving country’s pernicious problems of fiscal deficit, inflation etc, will they go against their own grain? Will they allow Modi to implement these reforms? Will they not stone ball him in the name of consensus?
And yet, if he moves ahead, they won’t loose time in castigating him for acting ‘allegedly’ in a dictatorial fashion. And, such derision will most likely catch the imagination of public. Those who loose the dole/subsidy now are bound to vent out their anger on the ruler oblivious of long-term benefits!
Yet, Modi can sail through this turbulence if BJP has an absolute majority. If it does not have, then he won’t be able to initiate any reform. He would be doing so at government’s peril. That is why crossing 272 mark is so crucial.
Apart from subsidy reforms, there are a host of other areas that require tough and decisive action. These include right pricing of gas; reforms in coal and other natural resources; reforms in banking and issue of new bank licenses; stemming the rot in infrastructure especially power and roads; bringing back black money stashed abroad; tax reforms etc.
Mr Modi and his team have the capability and determination to set things right in all mentioned areas. All that he needs is a constitutional mandate to act for achieving desired results. But, this will remain a pipedream if voters deny BJP the magic number of 272!