The deceleration in GDP growth which commenced in the second quarter of the last financial year [FY] has continued during the current year even as the growth during the first quarter ending June 30, 2019 has plummeted to a record low of 5%. Moreover, there appears to be no sign of reversal even as the Reserve Bank of India [RBI] – in its latest [October 4, 2019] monetary policy review – has projected growth of just 6% for 2019-20 – down from its previous estimate [August, 2019 policy review] of 6.9% . Analysts have propounded several theories from purely cyclical to decline being of a ‘structural’ nature to doomsayers predicting that Indian economy is heading for a prolonged recession. The...
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Category: Economic outlook
Why subsidy reforms are not taking off
At present, tens of millions persons [including undeserving] are getting a variety of subsidies from the government. These cost hundreds of thousand crore seriously impairing its ability to maintain fiscal deficit [excess of total expenditure over total revenue] within the target range mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management [FRBM] Act. The manner of administering these subsidies is marked by ‘ad-hocism’ and ‘arbitrariness’. It leads to mis-allocation of resources, promotes inefficiency in production, distribution and use, encourages misuse of funds, makes way for controls through the backdoor, enables bureaucrats to meddle in the affairs of the industry and creates fertile ground for nepotism and corruption. Even as Modi – government has vowed to make India a US$ 5 trillion...
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Govt must learn to let PSUs go
Privatisation and controls can’t go hand-in-hand. The Centre’s instinct to retain its hold on PSUs indirectly should give way to wholesome transfer of ownership and authority to private investors In the Budget presented on July 5, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced disinvestment of the Government’s shareholding in public sector undertakings (PSUs) to a level below 51 per cent on a “case-by-case” basis. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) is expected to approve this policy soon. The 51 per cent threshold is very crucial as shareholding at this level or above enables the Government to have majority ownership and control over the undertaking. If the holding is reduced to below 51 per cent, this will lead to relinquishment of majority ownership...
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E-commerce norms – violations continue unabated
The global e-commerce majors have been in the news, yet again, for violating norms for foreign direct investment [FDI]. The Confederation of All India Traders [CAIT] has complained to the government that Amazon, Flipkart are giving huge discounts, selling exclusive brands [including their own] and controlling inventory of sellers etc – all of which is prohibited under FDI policy. Under the guidelines on FDI in e-commerce [issued in 2016-17, Press Note 3], 100% FDI is permitted in the ‘market-place’. The market-place is a platform where sellers and buyers meet to conduct sale and purchase transactions even as the owner of market-place [read: e-commerce company] merely acts as a facilitator. It can provide services such as book orders, raise invoice, arrange...
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PSUs – privatization and controls can’t go hand-in-hand
In her budget presented on July 5, 2019, the finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman announced disinvestment of governments’ shareholding in public sector undertakings [PSUs] to a level below 51% on a ‘case-by-case’ basis. The cabinet committee on economic affairs [CCEA] is expected to approve this policy any time soon. The 51% threshold is very crucial as shareholding at this level or above enables the government to have majority ownership and control over the undertaking. If, the holding is reduced to below 51%, this will lead to relinquishment of majority ownership and control, or privatization in plain words. This will be transformative – a bold reform indeed. But, hold your breath, there is a caveat appended to it. In the budget speech, Sitharaman...
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Sagging GST collection – time to wield the stick
The finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman has constituted a high level committee consisting of the representatives of the centre and states to study the reasons as to why tax collections under GST [Goods and Services Tax] have been slack and suggest measures to boost. The GST was launched on July 1, 2017. While, it may not be realistic to expect the desired buoyancy during the first year [as it takes time for the system to stabilize], during 2018-19, in all fairness, one would have expected the tax collection to pick up. But, the year ended up with big disappointment as the actual collection for the union government [it includes CGST (central GST), compensation cess and undistributed portion of IGST (integrated GST)]...
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Growth remains slack, despite booster doses
The downward revision in the GDP [gross domestic product] estimate for current year by the Reserve Bank of India [RBI] in its latest monetary policy review from the previous estimate of 6.9% [that itself was a significant reduction from the original 7.4%] to 6.1% now confirms the lingering fear of substantial deceleration in the economic activity that started from the second quarter of last year. When, the GDP growth declined to a six year low of 5% during the first quarter of current year, the expectation was that the growth momentum would pick during the 3rd and 4th quarter with the banking regulator projecting growth rate of 6.6% and 7.4% respectively. Now, if RBI itself is forecasting 6.1% for the...
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PSU privatization – will Modi crack the whip?
The ‘strategic disinvestment’ is an acronym used to denote transfer of a sizeable portion of ownership and management control of the state in a public sector undertaking [PSU] to an investor [call him ‘strategic’ investor] by selling commensurate shares. In a transformative sense, the government could reduce its holding to below 51% so as to lead to relinquishment of its majority ownership and control, or privatization in plain words. The governments, the world over, have used this as an instrument to vacate areas of economic activity where they believe the state ought not to be involved in the very first place or after having operated for a certain period, currently feel it is no longer necessary. It is also used...
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Booster for corporate India
Much will depend on how the surplus in the hands of companies resulting from tax cuts is apportioned among them and equally importantly, how it is spent In a flurry of announcements made on September 20, 2019 (also described in media circles as a third Union Budget in less than three months), Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman handed out a bonanza to the Indian corporate sector. The most pleasing announcement pertains to the steep reduction in the rate of corporate tax for new entities incorporated from October 1, 2019 in the manufacturing sector, that start production before March 31, 2023 from the existing 25 per cent to 15 per cent. After subsuming surcharge and cess, the effective incidence of tax will be lowered...
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Priority accorded, but infra investment hits slow lane
In her maiden budget presented to Parliament on July 5, 2019, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman laid a roadmap for catapulting the Indian economy to $5 trillion by 2024-25. The most crucial component of this roadmap is the investment in infrastructure to the tune of a mammoth Rs 100,00,000 crore or $1.4 trillion. In the follow-through, in an interactive session with the media on August 24, 2019, she announced setting up of a high-level inter-ministerial committee to work out a detailed action plan. During its first term also, the Narendra Modi government gave overriding importance to building infrastructure. Indeed, it achieved a fair amount of success with a cumulative investment of about Rs 20,00,000 crore and commensurate output in terms of roads and highways built. This was commendable...
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