Category: Economic outlook

Solve a contentious issue

The unabsorbed input tax credit dilemma in the Goods and Services Tax is something that the Council needs to address urgently In the backdrop of the collection under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) not coming up to the expected level and the consequential inability of the Central Government to meet its obligations towards compensation to the States as committed under the GST Compensation Act, 2017 (it provides for compensation for five years i.e. till 2021-22 to be calculated as the difference between actual collection and the revenue it would have got with growth at four per cent over the 2015-16 level), the GST Council is undertaking a comprehensive review of the existing rate structure and the implementation mechanism. Meanwhile, a contentious...
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Poll promises mock at fiscal discipline

Delivering a lecture at the Foundation for Democratic Reforms, Bharat Institute of Public Policy and Hyderabad University on January 9, 2020,Vice President and Rajya Sabha Chairman Venkaiah Naidu stressed the need for a law to check “reckless and unsustainable populist” promises of political parties – on the lines of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act [FRBM]. The FRBM Act was passed by the Parliament in 2003 for institutionalizing financial discipline and reducing the fiscal deficit [FD] to a manageable limit to improve the overall financial health. Under the Act – as amended vide the Finance Bill [2018-19], union government has set for itself fiscal deficit [FD] target of 3% of gross domestic product [GDP] for 2020-21 and debt limit...
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Impending fiscal catastrophe – act before it is too late

Having achieved the fiscal deficit target for three years in a row viz. 2014-15/2015-16/2016-17, Modi – government missed it in the following two years 2017-18 and 2018-19. During 2017-18, the actual FD expressed as percentage of gross domestic product [GDP] was 3.5% against the target of 3.2%. For 2018-19, the then finance minister, Arun Jaitely Jaitely had set a target of 3.3% as against 3% sought by a committee under Mr NK Singh, former expenditure secretary and currently, Chairman, 15th Finance Commission. The committee was set up in 2016 to review Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management [FRBM] Act [2003] with a mandate to revamp the Act and recommend a glide path for the next six years. It recommended fiscal deficit [FD]...
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GST – unabsorbed input tax credit dilemma

In the backdrop of tax collection under Goods and Services Tax [GST] not coming up to the expected level and consequential inability of the central government to meet its obligations towards compensation to the states as committed under the GST Compensation Act [2017] [it provides for compensation for 5 years i.e. till 2021-22 to be calculated as the difference between actual collection and the revenue they would have got with growth @14% over 2015-16 level], the GST Council has undertaken a comprehensive review of existing rate structure and the implementation mechanism. Meanwhile, a contentious issue that mandarins in the Council will need to urgently look at relates to the treatment of the accumulated input tax credit which does not get...
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Allow 100% FDI in online, offline retail in all sectors

The Confederation of All India Traders (an umbrella organisation of small traders and businesses),  has complained to the government that global e-commerce majors – Amazon and Flipkart – are giving huge discounts, selling exclusive brands and controlling inventory of sellers etc. All these are prohibited under the extant policy on foreign direct investment (FDI). Promising action, Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has ordered collection of data on their financials, business model and operating practices. This is not a new development. Ever since the guidelines permitting 100% FDI in the ‘market-place’ model of e-commerce were issued in early 2016 (Press Note 3), complaints of violations had been pouring in even as the then minister Suresh Prabhu promised action. The...
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Boosting tax revenue, tapping new avenues

Modi – government deserves accolades for making relentless efforts to increase tax revenue – even in the face of slowdown in economic growth [during the first two quarters of the current year, nominal growth in GDP was 8% and 6.1% respectively] – and ensure that it comes close to the target set for the year. The monthly collections under GST [Goods and Services Tax] which had slipped below Rs 100,000 crore mark for three consecutive months viz. August/September/October recovered to over Rs 103,000 crore in November and December each. This is mainly due to reining in evasion, increasing compliance and making businesses pay up [entities filing return increased from 7 million in April, 2019 to 8.1 million in December, 2019]....
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IBC framework – springboard to 5 trillion dollar economy

In the midst of raging controversy over the Citizenship Amendment Act [CAA] [2019] and fear over the impending National Register of Citizens [NRC] capturing headlines in the media, a positive news for the  economy went unnoticed. This relates to improvement in the health of the banking system. According to the annual report on ‘trends and progress of banking in 2018-19’ released by the Reserve Bank of India [RBI], the gross non-performing assets [GNPA] – a euphemism for loans turning dud – expressed as percentage of total loans declined from a high of 11.2% during the financial year [FY] 2017-18 to 9.1% during FY 2018-19. During the current year, this has remained stable at 9.1 per cent as of September-end, 2019. Correspondingly,...
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The dawn of a new era

Slowly but surely, India has manoeuvred its way through digital transformation. It must build on this success and the communication revolution to a new level for the creation of a vibrant economy Having missed the first and second industrial revolution of the 19th and early 20th century (courtesy the subjugation of India to colonial rulers of those times) and even the third technology-driven revolution (this one was primarily due to the “protectionist” and “inward-looking” Government policies, which were not conducive to embracing technology), India is at the forefront of leading the fourth industrial revolution — a digitally driven one —with speed and scale. The digital revolution calls for a shift from mechanical and analogue electronic technology to digital electronics, which...
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Minority shareholders’ rights at Bombay House – will SC uphold?

In a landmark judgment delivered on December 18, 2019, the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal [NCLAT] has held as illegal the decision of Tata Sons Limited [TSL] in its Board Meeting held on October 24, 2016 to remove Cyrus Mistry then Chairman, TSL as also from the board of three Group companies viz. Tata Consultancy Services [TCS], Tata Industries Limited [TIL] and Tata Teleservices Limited [Maharashtra]. It has also declared appointment of N Chandrasekran as Chairman, TSL [it followed removal of Mistry] illegal. It has directed immediate reinstatement of Mistry. The Appellate Tribunal has also held as illegal the decision of TSL shareholders in the AGM held on September 21, 2017 to convert itself from extant ‘public limited company’ status to...
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Analyzing growth – slowdown is not structural

During the first five years of Modi – government i.e. 2014-15 to 2018-19, GDP [gross domestic product] grew @7.5% on an average. However, during the first and second quarter of current year, growth has slipped to 5% and 4.5% respectively. Actually, it started moving on a downward trajectory from the third quarter of last year when it was 6.6% followed by 5.8% in the fourth quarter. The average for these 4 quarters [3rd and 4th quarter of 2018-19 and 1st and 2nd quarter of current year] works out to about 5.5%. In comparison with the impressive growth recorded over a 5 year period, this is a significant dip of 2% but can’t be termed by any stretch of imagination as...
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