Buoyed by the success of disinvestment [sale of government shares in public sector undertaking (PSU)] undertaken during 2017-18 and 2018-19 [when the centre garnered over Rs 100,000 crore and Rs 85,000 crore respectively], for the current year, Modi – government had set an ambitious target of getting Rs 105,000 crore. A major slice of these proceeds was to come from ‘strategic disinvestment’ – or transfer of a sizeable portion of ownership [this could go up to 51% implying privatization] and management control to a private entity. The crucial ‘strategic disinvestment’ proposals included divestment of all of government’s shareholding in Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited [BPCL] 53.29% ; Containers Corporation of India [ConCor] 30%; Shipping Corporation of India [SCI] 63.75%; North Eastern...
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Category: Economic outlook
FM promised truth, but the Budget lies on fiscal deficit
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget confirms the apprehension that the actual fiscal deficit for 2019-20 would exceed the budget estimate (BE) by a significant margin. Sitharaman put it at 3.8% of GDP against the targeted 3.3%. She justified this saying that the recommendation of the NK Singh committee on review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003, permitting breaching of the target in case of “far reaching structural reforms with unanticipated fiscal implications.” For 2020-21, she has put BE at 3.5% against the 3% required under the FRBM Act and offered the same explanation for this deviation, too. Despite the significant slippage (every 0.1% variation translates to extra borrowings of close to Rs 20,000 crore), the government’s...
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Aspirational India – long on vision but short on resources
The Union Budget for 2020-21 presented to the Parliament by the Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, 2020, confirms apprehension that the actual fiscal deficit [FD] for 2019-20 would exceed the budget estimate [BE] by a significant margin. Sitharaman puts it at 3.8% of GDP [gross domestic product] against the target of 3.3%. However, she has justified this deviation in terms of the recommendation of the NK Singh committee on review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management [FRBM] Act [2003] which permits breach of the target in case of “far reaching structural reforms with unanticipated fiscal implications”. For 2020-21, the finance minister has provided for FD of 3.5% as against 3.0% as stipulated under the FRBM Act. Here...
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Long on vision, short on means
The credibility of the fiscal consolidation glide path has been dented which is also reflected in the Sensex falling by over 1,000 points after the Budget announcements The Union Budget for 2020-21 presented to the Parliament by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1 confirms apprehensions that the actual fiscal deficit (FD) for 2019-20 would exceed the Budget Estimate (BE) by a significant margin. Sitharaman puts it at 3.8 per cent of the GDP against the target of 3.3 per cent. However, she has justified this deviation in terms of the recommendation of the NK Singh Committee on review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003 which permits breach of the target in case of “far-reaching structural reforms...
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Can invisible hand work?
Seen from an economist’s perspective, the Economic Survey looks eloquent. But execution could run into a logjam as politicians are prone to controlling the consumer The Economic Survey for 2019-20 has been prepared by the Chief Economic Advisor, Dr K Subramanian, keeping the ambitious target of achieving the $ 5 trillion economy status by 2024-25, set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at its centre. The rigorous analysis (a lot of it involves running of “regression equations” — a euphemism in econometric analysis to bring out correlation between various economic parameters) done by the CEA has to be seen in the backdrop of deceleration in the GDP (gross domestic product) growth to its 11-year-low of five per cent during the current year (first...
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Amnesty schemes can’t fill void in tax collection
The year 2017-18 [following the announcement of demonetization Prime Minister, Modi on November 8, 2016] witnessed an unprecedented surge in tax collection led mostly by steep increase in personal income tax [PIT]. During 2018-19 however, it received a jolt with collection missing the target by significant margin. The set-back has continued during the current year. In the budget for 2019-20, the finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman had set gross tax receipts [GTR] target of about Rs 2460,000 crore of which the net central tax [NCT] was Rs 1650,000 crore [after transfer of Rs 810,000 crore to states as per 14th Finance Commission]. As we draw towards year end, the government is staring at a shortfall of about Rs 356,000 crore in...
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Reducing income inequalities – needs change of mindset
Almost every government irrespective of its political affiliation assigns top priority to accelerating economic growth [commonly understood as giving a push to gross domestic product (GDP)] believing that fruits of this acceleration will automatically percolate to the lowest strata of the society resulting in their higher income and better living standard. This belief has led successive regimes to single mindedly focus on growth without even bothering to look at income distribution. This task is left to economists for analysis more in the nature of a post mortem and mountain of research but is of little use in so far as learning lessons and changing policy discourse is concerned. One such piece of research is ‘Time to Care’ released by rights...
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Will SC uphold minority shareholders’ rights in Tata Sons case at Bombay House?
In a landmark judgment last month, the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal [NCLAT] held as illegal the decision of Tata Sons Limited [TSL] in its board meeting on October 24, 2016 to remove Cyrus Mistry from his position as chairman of TSL as also from the boards of three group companies — Tata Consultancy Services [TCS], Tata Motors Ltd [TML], Tata Steel Ltd [TSL]. The NCLAT directed immediate reinstatement of Mistry. The tribunal also held illegal the decision of TSL shareholders at the AGM in September 2017 to convert TSL from extant ‘public limited company’ status to a ‘private limited company’ and change its name from TSL to Tata Sons Private Limited [TSPL] by amending the Articles of Association [AoA]. On January...
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Act, before it is too late
Taking a ‘fair’ and ‘realistic’ view of all receipts and expenditure of the Govt, its fiscal deficit is turning out to be almost double the three per cent target sought by the NK Singh panel Having achieved the fiscal deficit (FD) target for three years in a row, the Narendra Modi Government missed it in 2017-18 and 2018-19. During 2017-18, the actual FD expressed as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.5 per cent against the target of 3.2 per cent. For 2018-19, the then Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley had set a target of 3.3 per cent as against three per cent sought by a committee under NK Singh, former Expenditure Secretary and current Chairman of the 15th Finance...
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Where has demand disappeared?
The growth in gross domestic product [GDP] during the first and second quarter of current financial year was 5% and 4.5% respectively. Given the trend during the remaining two quarters, the year is expected to end with growth of no more than 5%. This is a significant drop from an average of about 7.5% recorded over a 5 year period 2014-15 to 2018-19. The drop during the current year is being blamed on ‘lack of demand’ with some commentators even arguing that demonetization and hasty implementation of the Goods and Services Tax [GST] led to demand destruction triggered by large-scale unemployment and erosion of income and purchasing power. While, there can be no disagreement on ‘lack of demand’ argument, to say...
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