Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget confirms the apprehension that the actual fiscal deficit for 2019-20 would exceed the budget estimate (BE) by a significant margin. Sitharaman put it at 3.8% of GDP against the targeted 3.3%. She justified this saying that the recommendation of the NK Singh committee on review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003, permitting breaching of the target in case of “far reaching structural reforms with unanticipated fiscal implications.” For 2020-21, she has put BE at 3.5% against the 3% required under the FRBM Act and offered the same explanation for this deviation, too. Despite the significant slippage (every 0.1% variation translates to extra borrowings of close to Rs 20,000 crore), the government’s...
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Category: Growth & employment
Aspirational India – long on vision but short on resources
The Union Budget for 2020-21 presented to the Parliament by the Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, 2020, confirms apprehension that the actual fiscal deficit [FD] for 2019-20 would exceed the budget estimate [BE] by a significant margin. Sitharaman puts it at 3.8% of GDP [gross domestic product] against the target of 3.3%. However, she has justified this deviation in terms of the recommendation of the NK Singh committee on review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management [FRBM] Act [2003] which permits breach of the target in case of “far reaching structural reforms with unanticipated fiscal implications”. For 2020-21, the finance minister has provided for FD of 3.5% as against 3.0% as stipulated under the FRBM Act. Here...
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Long on vision, short on means
The credibility of the fiscal consolidation glide path has been dented which is also reflected in the Sensex falling by over 1,000 points after the Budget announcements The Union Budget for 2020-21 presented to the Parliament by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1 confirms apprehensions that the actual fiscal deficit (FD) for 2019-20 would exceed the Budget Estimate (BE) by a significant margin. Sitharaman puts it at 3.8 per cent of the GDP against the target of 3.3 per cent. However, she has justified this deviation in terms of the recommendation of the NK Singh Committee on review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003 which permits breach of the target in case of “far-reaching structural reforms...
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Can invisible hand work?
Seen from an economist’s perspective, the Economic Survey looks eloquent. But execution could run into a logjam as politicians are prone to controlling the consumer The Economic Survey for 2019-20 has been prepared by the Chief Economic Advisor, Dr K Subramanian, keeping the ambitious target of achieving the $ 5 trillion economy status by 2024-25, set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at its centre. The rigorous analysis (a lot of it involves running of “regression equations” — a euphemism in econometric analysis to bring out correlation between various economic parameters) done by the CEA has to be seen in the backdrop of deceleration in the GDP (gross domestic product) growth to its 11-year-low of five per cent during the current year (first...
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Reducing income inequalities – needs change of mindset
Almost every government irrespective of its political affiliation assigns top priority to accelerating economic growth [commonly understood as giving a push to gross domestic product (GDP)] believing that fruits of this acceleration will automatically percolate to the lowest strata of the society resulting in their higher income and better living standard. This belief has led successive regimes to single mindedly focus on growth without even bothering to look at income distribution. This task is left to economists for analysis more in the nature of a post mortem and mountain of research but is of little use in so far as learning lessons and changing policy discourse is concerned. One such piece of research is ‘Time to Care’ released by rights...
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Act, before it is too late
Taking a ‘fair’ and ‘realistic’ view of all receipts and expenditure of the Govt, its fiscal deficit is turning out to be almost double the three per cent target sought by the NK Singh panel Having achieved the fiscal deficit (FD) target for three years in a row, the Narendra Modi Government missed it in 2017-18 and 2018-19. During 2017-18, the actual FD expressed as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.5 per cent against the target of 3.2 per cent. For 2018-19, the then Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley had set a target of 3.3 per cent as against three per cent sought by a committee under NK Singh, former Expenditure Secretary and current Chairman of the 15th Finance...
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Where has demand disappeared?
The growth in gross domestic product [GDP] during the first and second quarter of current financial year was 5% and 4.5% respectively. Given the trend during the remaining two quarters, the year is expected to end with growth of no more than 5%. This is a significant drop from an average of about 7.5% recorded over a 5 year period 2014-15 to 2018-19. The drop during the current year is being blamed on ‘lack of demand’ with some commentators even arguing that demonetization and hasty implementation of the Goods and Services Tax [GST] led to demand destruction triggered by large-scale unemployment and erosion of income and purchasing power. While, there can be no disagreement on ‘lack of demand’ argument, to say...
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Boosting tax revenue, tapping new avenues
Modi – government deserves accolades for making relentless efforts to increase tax revenue – even in the face of slowdown in economic growth [during the first two quarters of the current year, nominal growth in GDP was 8% and 6.1% respectively] – and ensure that it comes close to the target set for the year. The monthly collections under GST [Goods and Services Tax] which had slipped below Rs 100,000 crore mark for three consecutive months viz. August/September/October recovered to over Rs 103,000 crore in November and December each. This is mainly due to reining in evasion, increasing compliance and making businesses pay up [entities filing return increased from 7 million in April, 2019 to 8.1 million in December, 2019]....
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IBC framework – springboard to 5 trillion dollar economy
In the midst of raging controversy over the Citizenship Amendment Act [CAA] [2019] and fear over the impending National Register of Citizens [NRC] capturing headlines in the media, a positive news for the economy went unnoticed. This relates to improvement in the health of the banking system. According to the annual report on ‘trends and progress of banking in 2018-19’ released by the Reserve Bank of India [RBI], the gross non-performing assets [GNPA] – a euphemism for loans turning dud – expressed as percentage of total loans declined from a high of 11.2% during the financial year [FY] 2017-18 to 9.1% during FY 2018-19. During the current year, this has remained stable at 9.1 per cent as of September-end, 2019. Correspondingly,...
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The dawn of a new era
Slowly but surely, India has manoeuvred its way through digital transformation. It must build on this success and the communication revolution to a new level for the creation of a vibrant economy Having missed the first and second industrial revolution of the 19th and early 20th century (courtesy the subjugation of India to colonial rulers of those times) and even the third technology-driven revolution (this one was primarily due to the “protectionist” and “inward-looking” Government policies, which were not conducive to embracing technology), India is at the forefront of leading the fourth industrial revolution — a digitally driven one —with speed and scale. The digital revolution calls for a shift from mechanical and analogue electronic technology to digital electronics, which...
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