The Union Budget for 2020-21 presented to the Parliament by the Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, 2020, confirms apprehension that the actual fiscal deficit [FD] for 2019-20 would exceed the budget estimate [BE] by a significant margin. Sitharaman puts it at 3.8% of GDP [gross domestic product] against the target of 3.3%. However, she has justified this deviation in terms of the recommendation of the NK Singh committee on review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management [FRBM] Act [2003] which permits breach of the target in case of “far reaching structural reforms with unanticipated fiscal implications”. For 2020-21, the finance minister has provided for FD of 3.5% as against 3.0% as stipulated under the FRBM Act. Here...
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Category: Fiscal deficit/subsidies
Long on vision, short on means
The credibility of the fiscal consolidation glide path has been dented which is also reflected in the Sensex falling by over 1,000 points after the Budget announcements The Union Budget for 2020-21 presented to the Parliament by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1 confirms apprehensions that the actual fiscal deficit (FD) for 2019-20 would exceed the Budget Estimate (BE) by a significant margin. Sitharaman puts it at 3.8 per cent of the GDP against the target of 3.3 per cent. However, she has justified this deviation in terms of the recommendation of the NK Singh Committee on review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003 which permits breach of the target in case of “far-reaching structural reforms...
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Can invisible hand work?
Seen from an economist’s perspective, the Economic Survey looks eloquent. But execution could run into a logjam as politicians are prone to controlling the consumer The Economic Survey for 2019-20 has been prepared by the Chief Economic Advisor, Dr K Subramanian, keeping the ambitious target of achieving the $ 5 trillion economy status by 2024-25, set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at its centre. The rigorous analysis (a lot of it involves running of “regression equations” — a euphemism in econometric analysis to bring out correlation between various economic parameters) done by the CEA has to be seen in the backdrop of deceleration in the GDP (gross domestic product) growth to its 11-year-low of five per cent during the current year (first...
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Act, before it is too late
Taking a ‘fair’ and ‘realistic’ view of all receipts and expenditure of the Govt, its fiscal deficit is turning out to be almost double the three per cent target sought by the NK Singh panel Having achieved the fiscal deficit (FD) target for three years in a row, the Narendra Modi Government missed it in 2017-18 and 2018-19. During 2017-18, the actual FD expressed as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.5 per cent against the target of 3.2 per cent. For 2018-19, the then Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley had set a target of 3.3 per cent as against three per cent sought by a committee under NK Singh, former Expenditure Secretary and current Chairman of the 15th Finance...
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Poll promises mock at fiscal discipline
Delivering a lecture at the Foundation for Democratic Reforms, Bharat Institute of Public Policy and Hyderabad University on January 9, 2020,Vice President and Rajya Sabha Chairman Venkaiah Naidu stressed the need for a law to check “reckless and unsustainable populist” promises of political parties – on the lines of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act [FRBM]. The FRBM Act was passed by the Parliament in 2003 for institutionalizing financial discipline and reducing the fiscal deficit [FD] to a manageable limit to improve the overall financial health. Under the Act – as amended vide the Finance Bill [2018-19], union government has set for itself fiscal deficit [FD] target of 3% of gross domestic product [GDP] for 2020-21 and debt limit...
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Impending fiscal catastrophe – act before it is too late
Having achieved the fiscal deficit target for three years in a row viz. 2014-15/2015-16/2016-17, Modi – government missed it in the following two years 2017-18 and 2018-19. During 2017-18, the actual FD expressed as percentage of gross domestic product [GDP] was 3.5% against the target of 3.2%. For 2018-19, the then finance minister, Arun Jaitely Jaitely had set a target of 3.3% as against 3% sought by a committee under Mr NK Singh, former expenditure secretary and currently, Chairman, 15th Finance Commission. The committee was set up in 2016 to review Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management [FRBM] Act [2003] with a mandate to revamp the Act and recommend a glide path for the next six years. It recommended fiscal deficit [FD]...
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GST – unabsorbed input tax credit dilemma
In the backdrop of tax collection under Goods and Services Tax [GST] not coming up to the expected level and consequential inability of the central government to meet its obligations towards compensation to the states as committed under the GST Compensation Act [2017] [it provides for compensation for 5 years i.e. till 2021-22 to be calculated as the difference between actual collection and the revenue they would have got with growth @14% over 2015-16 level], the GST Council has undertaken a comprehensive review of existing rate structure and the implementation mechanism. Meanwhile, a contentious issue that mandarins in the Council will need to urgently look at relates to the treatment of the accumulated input tax credit which does not get...
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Bail out to all and sundry – road to disaster
The banks – mostly public sector banks [PSBs] – are relentlessly fighting a battle to deal with unsustainable levels of non-performing assets [NPAs] those were caused by ‘indiscriminate’ lending [with hardly any or no ‘due diligence’ which is a fundamental requirement for funding any project] mostly to corporate sector particularly during a decade under erstwhile UPA – dispensation [2004-2014]. While, NPAs have declined significantly from the peak level reached as on March 31, 2018 [courtesy, a massive dose of recapitalization by the union government of over Rs 300,000 crore during the last 5 years as also rigorous governance norms including putting some of them under prompt corrective action framework], the stress is far from over. This is in view of...
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A scandalous waste
Successive Governments have reiterated their unflinching commitment to rationalise subsidies and reduce the unsustainable burden they put on the country’s Budget, yet they have failed to do so Millions of people (including many undeserving ones) are getting a variety of subsidies from the Central Government and States. These cost crores, impairing the ability of the Centre and States to rein in fiscal deficit (excess of total expenditure over total revenue) within the range mandated under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act. These subsidies are administered in an “ad-hoc” and “arbitrary” manner and this leads to misallocation of resources, promotes inefficiency in production, distribution and use, encourages misuse and diversion of funds and makes way for controls. Successive Governments,...
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Why subsidy reforms are not taking off
At present, tens of millions persons [including undeserving] are getting a variety of subsidies from the government. These cost hundreds of thousand crore seriously impairing its ability to maintain fiscal deficit [excess of total expenditure over total revenue] within the target range mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management [FRBM] Act. The manner of administering these subsidies is marked by ‘ad-hocism’ and ‘arbitrariness’. It leads to mis-allocation of resources, promotes inefficiency in production, distribution and use, encourages misuse of funds, makes way for controls through the backdoor, enables bureaucrats to meddle in the affairs of the industry and creates fertile ground for nepotism and corruption. Even as Modi – government has vowed to make India a US$ 5 trillion...
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