For Indian economy, 2013 has ended on a sombre note. The beginning itself was tumultuous as growth during fiscal ending March, 2013 plummeted to a decade low 5% and current account deficit (CAD) high of 4.8% GDP, US$ 88 billion in absolute terms. In the third quarter of that year ending December 31, 2012, CAD had hit a scary 6.7% of GDP. Despite reduction in subsequent quarter to a little less than 4%, overall CAD was close to 5%. This was almost double RBI comfort level of 2.5%, reminiscent of 1991 crisis. Fiscal deficit though lower than target at 4.9% was fortuitous – made possible by huge compression in plan expenditure by Rs 90,000 crores (around US$ 17 billion) and...
More
No comments
Category: Fiscal deficit/subsidies
A fertiliser plant closing near you
After netting the carryover subsidy from FY13, just Rs.30,000 crore is left in FY14 for fertiliser subsidies Finance minister P Chidambaram has achieved a fiscal deficit of 5.2% of GDP for 2012-13, thereby redeeming government’s commitment to contain it within the 5.3% target—though the latter, by itself, is higher than the 5.1% provided for by Pranab Mukherjee in the last Budget. Further, true to exhortations he made during his road-shows to demonstrate that India is serious about fiscal consolidation, he has budgeted the deficit at 4.8% during 2013-14. He also intends to reduce it to 3% by 2016-17. The achievement is more fortuitous rather than being a result of credible efforts made on ground zero. A substantial compression in Plan...
More
No comments
No effort to rein in subsidies
In the Budget for 2012-13, then Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had targeted fiscal deficit at 5.1 per cent of GDP, which was subsequently revised to 5.3 per cent. P. Chidambaram has delivered; the revised estimate is 5.2 per cent. For 2013-14, he is aiming at 4.8 per cent. However, the Government has failed to deliver on its commitment to rein in subsidies. Subsidies on fuel, fertilisers and food were budgeted at 1.9 per cent of GDP. The revised estimate is 2.26 per cent. Budget estimate for 2013-14 is even higher at 2.3 per cent. Juxtapose this with Pranab Mukherjee’s exhortation that subsidies will be reduced progressively to 1.75 per cent within three years. Far from that, subsidies are rising. This...
More
No comments
Price controls and fiscal cliffs
The department of fertilisers (DoF) is working on an arrangement with a consortium of PSBs for a loan amounting to R25,000 crore to pay outstanding fertiliser subsidy dues to the manufacturers. Urea manufacturers receive subsidy under the new pricing scheme (NPS) to cover the differential between the cost of production and distribution, and maximum retail price controlled at a low level. DAP and complex fertiliser manufacturers receive subsidies under the nutrient-based scheme (NBS)—a ‘fixed’ amount linked to nutrient content, viz nitrogen, phosphate and potash. The budget for 2012-13 provided for an allocation of around R60,000 crore towards fertiliser subsidies. These funds were exhausted in the first 4 months of the current fiscal. DoF needs an additional Rs 40,000 crore to...
More
No comments
Crippling effects of oil subsidies
A lesser known aspect of the much talked about oil subsidies is the unprecedented ‘liquidity crunch’ that oil PSUs viz., IOC, HPCL and BPCL, face perennially. Subsidies are administered through these undertakings. Under instructions from the Government, these PSUs sell kerosene, LPG and diesel at low prices (prior to June 2010, price of petrol was also regulated). How is the excess of cost over selling price covered? Oil and gas PSUs contribute 40 per cent of differential amount by way of discount on crude supplies. The Government is supposed to reimburse 60 per cent as subsidy. However, it rarely meets its commitment in full! RISING UNDER-RECOVERIES Thus, during the first nine months of 2012-13 fiscal (April-December 2012), these PSUs had...
More
No comments
Cash transfers: Food for thought
The ‘Direct Cash Transfer’ (DCT) of funds into bank accounts of beneficiaries began this month in 20 districts. It will cover the entire country by April 2014. But food and fertiliser have been kept out of its ambit. There are complex issues to be sorted out, the Finance Minister has said, without really giving an indication as to when the rollout in these critical areas will actually take place. Payments are estimated to be Rs 3,20,000 crore annually. The scheme is being bandied as a revolutionary reform that will bring transparency, enhance reach, empower poor, improve fiscal deficit and reduce corruption. The implementation if done in a manner as contemplated — correct identification of beneficiaries, inclusion of all deserving persons,...
More
No comments
End the oil, fertiliser subsidy raj
A likely trade deficit of around $200 billion during the current year ($110 billion during April-October 2012) — exceeding last year’s all-time record of $185 billion — is ringing alarm bells. When viewed against the backdrop of deceleration in industrial output — in particular, the capital goods sector — this shows that excessive imports are being resorted to for supporting consumption, instead of growth. Crude petroleum, fertilisers, edible oils, pulses, account for a major share of our import bill. Their imports remain high, irrespective of the prevailing international prices. Thus, even when prices shoot up, imports do not go down. We import 80 per cent of our crude requirement. In phosphate, this is 80-85 per cent; potash 100 per cent...
More
No comments